Shiklomanov A, Cowdery E, Bahn M, Byun C, Jansen S, Kramer K, Minden V, Niinemets Ülo, Onoda Y, Soudzilovskaia N, Dietze MC. 2018. Does the leaf economic spectrum hold within plant functional types? A Bayesian multivariate trait meta-analysis. bioRxiv:

Travis A, MC Dietze, R Booth. 2018. Climate or disturbance: temperate forest structural change and carbon sink potential. bioRxiv:

Raczka B, MC Dietze, SP Serbin, KJ Davis. 2018. Quantifying parametric uncertainty in the simulation of decadal to centennial scale carbon sequestration in Northern Wisconsin. JGR-Biogeosciences 123(12):3570-3588


Dietze MC, A Fox, L Beck-Johnson, JL Betancourt, MB Hooten, CS Jarnevich, TH Keitt, MA Kenney, CM Laney, LG Larsen, HW Loescher, CK Lunch, B Pijanowski, JT Randerson, EK Read, AT Tredennick, R Vargas, KC Weathers, EP White. 2018. Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences DOI pdf.

Fer I, R Kelly, P Moorcroft, AD Richardson, E Cowdery, MC Dietze. 2018. Linking big models to big data: efficient ecosystem model calibration through Bayesian model emulation. Biogeosciences 15:5801-5830 open access

Asbjornsen H, JL Campbell, KA Jennings, MA Vadeboncoeur, C McIntire, PH Templer, RP Phillips, TL Bauerle, MC Dietze, SD Frey, PM Groffman, R Guerrieri, PJ Hanson, EP Kelsey, AK Knapp, NG McDowell, P Meir, KA Novick, SV Ollinger, WT Pockman, PG Schaberg, SD Wullschleger, MD Smith, L Rustad. 2018. Guidelines and considerations for designing precipitation manipulation experiments in forest ecosystems. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 9(12):2310-2325. DOI:10.1111/2041-210X.13094 link

Babst F, P Bodesheim, N Charney, A Friend, M Girandin, S Klesse, DJP Moore, K Seftigen, J Björklund, O Bouriaud, A Dawson, RJ DeRose, M Dietze, A Eckes, B Enquist, DC Frank, MD Mahecha, B Poulter, S Record, V Trouet, R Turton, Z Zhang, MEK Evans. 2018. When tree rings go global: challenges and opportunities for retro- and prospective insight. Quaternary Science Reviews 197:1-20 pdf

Averill C, MC Dietze, JM Talbot. 2018. Continental-scale nitrogen pollution is shifting forest mycorrhizal associations and soil carbon stocks. Global Change Biology 24(10):4544-4553 DOI:10.1111/gcb.14368 open access

Dietze M, C Averill, J Foster, K Wheeler. 2018. Ecological Forecasting. Oxford Bibliographies DOI: 10.1093/OBO/9780199830060-0205 link static PDF

Kleindl, W. J., P. C. Stoy, M. Binford, A. Desai, M. C. Dietze, Schultz, G. Starr, C. Staudhammer, D. J. A. Wood. 2018. Toward a Socioecological Theory of Forest Macrosystems. Forests 9(4):200 DOI: 10.3390/f9040200

Fernandes A, Rollinson CR, Kearney WS, Dietze MC, Fagherazzi S. 2018. Declining radial growth response of coastal forests to hurricanes and nor'easters. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 123 (3), 832-849

Massoud, E. C., Huisman, J., Benincà, E., Dietze, M. C., Bouten, W. and Vrugt, J. A. (2017), Probing the limits of predictability: data assimilation of chaotic dynamics in complex food webs. Ecol Lett. doi:10.1111/ele.12876 pdf

Dietze, M. C. (2017), Prediction in ecology: a first-principles framework. Ecol Appl, 27: 2048-2060. doi:10.1002/eap.1589 pdf

Fisher RA, Koven CD, Anderegg WRL, et al. 2017. Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: A review of progress and priorities. Glob Change Biol. pdf

Marlon, J. R., Pederson, N., Nolan, C., Goring, S., Shuman, B., Robertson, A., Booth, R., Bartlein, P. J., Berke, M. A., Clifford, M., Cook, E., Dieffenbacher-Krall, A., Dietze, M. C., Hessl, A., Hubeny, J. B., Jackson, S. T., Marsicek, J., McLachlan, J., Mock, C. J., Moore, D. J. P., Nichols, J., Peteet, D., Schaefer, K., Trouet, V., Umbanhowar, C., Williams, J. W., and Yu, Z.: Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years, Clim. Past, 13, 1355-1379,, 2017. pdf

Rollinson, C. R., Liu, Y., Raiho, A., Moore, D. J.P., McLachlan, J., Bishop, D. A., Dye, A., Matthes, J. H., Hessl, A., Hickler, T., Pederson, N., Poulter, B., Quaife, T., Schaefer, K., Steinkamp, J. and Dietze, M. C. (2017), Emergent climate and CO2 sensitivities of net primary productivity in ecosystem models do not agree with empirical data in temperate forests of eastern North America. Glob Change Biol. Accepted Author Manuscript. doi:10.1111/gcb.13626 pdf

LeBauer, D., Kooper, R., Mulrooney, P., Rohde, S., Wang, D., Long, S. P. and Dietze, M. C. (2017), betydb: a yield, trait, and ecosystem service database applied to second-generation bioenergy feedstock production. GCB Bioenergy. doi:10.1111/gcbb.12420 pdf

Goring S, DJ Mladenoff, CV Cogbill, S Record, CJ Paciorek, ST Jackson, MC Dietze, A Dawson, J Matthes, JS McLachlan, JW Williams. 2016. Novel and lost forests in the upper Midwestern United States, from new estimates of settlement-era composition, stem density, and biomass. PLOS ONE pdf doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0151935

Rogers A, BE Medlyn, J Dukes, G Bonan, S von Caemmerer, MC Dietze, J Kattge, ADB Leakey, LM Mercado, U Niinemets, IC Prentice, SP Serbin, S Sitch, DA Way, S Zaehle. 2017. "A Roadmap for Improving the Representation of Photosynthesis in Earth System Models" New Phytologist 213(1):22-42 DOI: 10.1111/nph.14283 pdf

Padhy et al 2016. An Architecture for Automatic Deployment of Brown Dog Services At Scale into Diverse Computing Infrastructures. XSEDE16. ACM SIG Proceedings. 10.1145/2949550.2949647

Shiklomanov. A, MC Dietze, T Viskari, PA Townsend, SP Serbin. 2016 "Quantifying the influences of spectral resolution on uncertainty in leaf trait estimates through a Bayesian approach to RTM inversion" Remote Sensing of the Environment 183: 226-238

Lokupitiya et al. (NACP synthesis). 2016. Carbon and Energy Fluxes in Cropland Ecosystems: A Model-Data Comparison. Biogeochemistry 129:53-76 pdf

Matthes, JH, S Goring, JW Williams, MC Dietze. 2016 "Benchmarking historical CMIP5 plant functional types across the Upper Midwest and Northeastern United States" Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. DOI: 10.1002/2015JG003175 pdf

Miller, AD, MC Dietze, EH DeLucia, KT Anderson-Teixeira. 2015. Alteration of forest succession and carbon cycling under elevated CO2. Global Change Biology 22 (1), 351-363 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13077 pdf

Schlesinger et al. 2015. Forest biogeochemistry in response to drought. Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.13105 pdf

Hu et al. The Blazing Tundra? Climate Change, Fire-Regime Shifts, and Biogeochemical Consequences. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 13(7): 369-377, doi:10.1890/150063 pdf

Medlyn et al. Using Ecosystem Experiments to Improve Vegetation Models: Lessons Learnt from the Free-Air CO2 Enrichment Model-Data Synthesis. Nature Climate Change 5:528-534 DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2621 pdf

Becknell et al. 2015. A macrosystems ecology approach to assessing the effects of changing management, climate, and disturbance on forest processes. Bioscience 65(3):263-274pdf

Padhy et al 2015 "Brown Dog: Leveraging Everything Towards Autocuration" IEEE Big Data Conference in review pdf

Viskari et al. 2015 Model-data assimilation of multiple phenological observations to constrain and forecast leaf area index. Ecological Applications 25(2): 546-558 pdf

McHenry K, J Lee, M Dietze, P Kumar, B Minsker, R Marciano, L Marini, R Kooper, D Mattson. 2014. DIBBs Brown Dog, PaaS for SaaS for PaaS. Proceedings of XSEDE14 pdf

Dietze M, J Matthes. 2014. A general ecophysiological framework for modeling the impact of pests and pathogens on forest ecosystems. Ecology Letters 17: 1418-1426

Matheny et al. Characterizing the diurnal patterns of errors in land-surface models' prediction of evapotranspiration: an NACP analysis. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci., 119, 1458-1473, doi:10.1002/2014JG002623 pdf

Walker et al. Model-experiment synthesis at two temperate forest free-air CO2 enrichment experiments. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci., 119, 937-964, doi:10.1002/2013JG002553 pdf

De Kauwe et al. Where does the carbon go? A model-data intercomparison of carbon allocation at two temperate forest free-air CO2 enrichment sites. New Phytologist 203: 883-899 doi: 10.1111/nph.12847 pdf

Ensemble Mean CO2 flux in Alaska

Fisher et al. 2014. Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic. Biogeosciences 11, 4271-4288. doi:10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014 pdf

Data Assimilation System

Niu et al. The role of data assimilation in predictive ecology. Ecosphere, 5 (5):10.1890/ES13-00273.1 pdf

Proportion of variance attributed to different parameters across 17 PFTs

Dietze et al. 2014. A quantitative assessment of a terrestrial biosphere model's data needs across North American biomes. Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences 119, 286-300, doi:10.1002/ 2013JG002392.pdf

N x CO2 pathways

Zaehle et al. 2014. Evaluation of 11 terrestrial carbon nitrogen cycle models against observations from two temperate Free-Air CO2 Enrichment studies. New Phytologist DOI: 10.1111/nph.12697 pdf

NSC allocation

Dietze et al. 2014. Nonstructural Carbon in Woody Plants. Annual Reviews in Plant Biology pdf

Alt Sampling of Photosynthesis

Dietze M. 2014. Gaps in knowledge and data driving uncertainty in models of photosynthesis. Photosynthesis Research 119:3-14 DOI: 10.1007/s11120-013-9836-z pdf

Yield of 21 tree spp

Wang et al. 2013. Ecophysiological screening of tree species for biomass production: trade-off between production and water use. Ecosphere 4 (11):10.1890/ES13-00156.1 NOV 2013 pdf

Scale-dependence of leaf N vs Vcmax

Feng, X. and M. Dietze. 2013. Scale-dependence in the effects of leaf economic traits on photosynthesis: Bayesian parameterization of photosynthesis models. New Phytologist DOI: 10.1111/nph.12454 pdf

C3 vs C4 isotopes

Urban et al. 2013. Classifying del13C values of individual grains of C3 and C4 grass pollen using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta. 121: 168-176 pdf

distribution table

LeBauer D.S., M.C. Dietze, B.M. Bolker. 2013. Translating Probability Density Functions: From R to BUGS and Back Again. R Journal Vol. 5/1, June, 207-209 pdf

Fig 4 Composite coherence spectrum

Stoy et al. 2013. Evaluating the agreement between measurements and models of net ecosystem exchange at different times and time scales using wavelet coherence: an example using data from the North American Carbon Program Site-Level Interim Synthesis. Biogeosciences 10:6893-6909 pdf

WUE enhancement

De Kauwe et al. 2013. Water use and water use efficiency at elevated CO2: a model-data intercomparison at two contrasting temperate forest FACE sites. Global Change Biology 19, 1759 - 1779 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12164 pdf

PalEON Summer Course 2012

Dietze, M.C., D. LeBauer, R. Kooper. 2013. On improving the communication between models and data. Plant, Cell, and Environment 36:1575-1585 pdf

PEcAn workflow

Wang, D, D. LeBauer, M.C. Dietze. 2013. Predicted yields of short-rotation hybrid poplar (Populus spp.) for the contiguous US. Ecological Applications 23:944-958 pdf

PEcAn workflow

LeBauer, D.S., D. Wang, K.T. Richter, C.C. Davidson, M.C. Dietze. 2013. Feedbacks between measurements and ecosystem models. Ecological Monographs 83(2), 133-154 pdf


Schaefer, K. et al. 2012. A Model-Data Comparison of Gross Primary Productivity: Results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis. JGR-B 117:G03010 doi:10.1029/2012JG001960 pdf

Poplar Rotation

Davis, S., M. Dietze, E. DeLucia, C. Field, S. Hamburg, S. Loarie, W. Parton, M. Potts, B. Ramage, D. Wang, H. Youngs, S. Long. 2012. Harvesting carbon from eastern US forests. Forests 3(2), 370-397; doi:10.3390/f3020370 pdf

CRUNCEP downscaling

Kumar, J., B. Brooks, P. Thornton, M. Dietze. 2012. Sub-daily Statistical Time Downscaling of Meteorological Variables Using Neural Networks. Procedia Computer Science 9, 887-896 pdf

Variance Residuals

Keenan et al. (NACP synthesis). 2012. Terrestrial biosphere model performance for inter-annual variability of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange Global Change Biology 18(6):1971-1987; doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02678.x pdf

Nair S. Surendran, S. Kang, X. Zhang, F. Miguez, R.C. Izaurralde, W.M. Post, M.C. Dietze, L.R. Lynd, and S.D.Wullschleger. Bioenergy crop models: Descriptions, data requirements and future challenges. Global Change Biology Bioenergy pdf

GPP phenology

Richardson et al. (NACP synthesis). 2012. Terrestrial biosphere models need better representation of vegetation phenology: Results from the North American Carbon Program Interim Synthesis. Global Change Biology 18, 566–584, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02562.x pdf

Miscanthus GPP

Wang, D., M.W. Maughan, J. Sun, X. Feng, F. Miguez, D.K. Lee, M.C. Dietze. 2012 Impacts of nitrogen allocation on growth and photosynthesis of Miscanthus (Miscanthus x giganteus) Global Change Biology Bioenergy pdf

Insect Disturbance Flow Chart

Hicke et al. (NACP synthesis). 2012. The effects of biotic disturbances on the North American carbon cycle. Global Change Biology 18:7-34. pdf

Harvard Spectra

Dietze et. al. (NACP synthesis). 2011. Identifying the time scales that dominate model error: A North American synthesis of the spectral properties of ecosystem models. JGR-Biogeosciences 116, G04029, doi:10.1029/2011JG001661 pdf

Eastern Forests

Dietze, M., P. Moorcroft. 2011. Tree mortality in the eastern and central U.S.: Patterns and drivers. Global Change Biology 17(11): 3312-3326. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02477.x pdf

Dietze, M.C., A.M. Latimer. 2011. Forest Simulators. Invited Chapter in: Sourcebook in Theoretical Ecology (A. Hastings and L. Gross, eds.), University of California Press, Berkeley, CA pdf

Feng, X., M.C. Dietze. 2011. Prairie yield, moisture and nitrogen content response to harvest time. Aspects of Applied Biology 112, Biomass and Energy Crops IV, 271-277.

Hatala, J., M. Dietze, Interagency Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group, K Kendall, D Six, R Crabtree, P Moorcroft. 2011. An ecosystem model of white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) spread in whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Ecological Applications 21(4):1138-1153 pdf

Miguez, F.E., M.C. Dietze, A. Kemanian. 2011. Modeling tools and strategies for developing sustainable feedstock supplies. Invited chapter in: Sustainable Alternative Fuel Feedstock Opportuniteis, Challenges and Roadmaps for Six U.S. Regions. pp. 319-338. pdf

Wang, D. M.W. Maughan, J. Sun, X. Feng, F. Miguez, DK Lee, M.C. Dietze. 2011. Impacts of canopy position and nitrogen on nitrogen allocation and photosynthesis of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.). Aspects of Applied Biology 112, Biomass and Energy Crops IV, 341-351.

Schwalm, C et al. (NACP synthesis). 2010. A model-data intercomparison of CO2 exchange across North America: Results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis. Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences VOL. 115, G00H0 doi:10.1029/2009JG001229 pdf

Wang, D., D. LeBauer, M.C. Dietze. 2010. A quantitative review comparing the yield of switchgrass in monocultures and mixtures in relation to climate and management factors. Global Change Biology Bioenergy 2(1): 16-25 pdf

Clark, JS, D Bell, C Chu, B Courbaud, M Dietze, M Hersh, J HilleRisLambers, Ines Ibanez, S LaDeau, Sean McMahon, J Metcalf, J Mohan, E Moran, L Pangle, S Pearson, C Salk, Z Shen, D Valle, and P Wyckoff. 2010. HIGH DIMENSIONAL COEXISTENCE BASED ON INDIVIDUAL VARIATION: A SYNTHESIS OF EVIDENCE. Ecological Monographs 80(4):569-608.pdf

McMahon, S., M. Dietze, M. Hersh, E. Moran, J. Clark. 2009. A PREDICTIVE FRAMEWORK TO UNDERSTAND FOREST RESPONSES TO GLOBAL CHANGE Invited chapter in: The Year in Ecology and Conservation Biology. 1162:221-236. pdf

Clark, J.S., D. Bell, M. Dietze, M. Hersh, I. Ibanez, S. LaDeau, S. McMahon, J. Metcalf, E. Moran, L. Pangle, and M. Wolosin. 2010. Models for demography of plant populations. in T. O'Hagan and M. West (eds), The Oxford Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis, Oxford University Press. pdf

Ibáñez,I., Clark, J.S. and Dietze, M. 2009. Estimating the performance of potential migrant species. Global Change Biology 15:1173-1188.pdf

Dietze, M., Clark J.S. 2008. Rethinking gap dynamics: the impact of damaged trees and sprouts. Ecological Monographs. 78(3):331-347. pdf

Dietze, M., M. Wolosin, J. Clark. 2008. Tree allometries: capturing diversity using a Hierarchical Bayes approach. Forest Ecology and Management 256:1939-1948. pdf appendix

Ibáñez, I., Clark, J.S. and Dietze, M. 2008. Evaluating the sources of potential migrant species. Implications under climate change. Ecological Applications 18(7): 1664-1678. pdf

Clark, J., M. Dietze, S. Chakraborty, P. Agarwal, I. Ibáñez, S. LaDeau, M. Wolosin. 2007. Resolving the biodiversity paradox. Ecology Letters 10(8): 647-659 pdf

Clark, J.S., M. Wolosin, M. Dietze, I. Ibáñez, S. LaDeau, M. Welsh, and B. Kloeppel. 2007. Tree growth inference and prediction from diameter censuses and ring widths. Ecological Applications. 17(7): 1942-1953. pdf

Govindarajan, S., M. Dietze, P. Agarwal, and J.S. Clark. 2007. A scalable algorithm for dispersing populations. Journal of Intelligent Information Systems. 29(1):39-61pdf

Ibáñez, I., J. S. Clark, M. C. Dietze, K. Feeley, M. Hersh, S. LaDeau, A. McBride, N. E. Welch, and M. S. Wolosin. 2006. Predicting biodiversity change: Outside the climate envelope, beyond the species-area curve. Ecology 87(8):1896-1906. pdf

Govindarajan, S., M. Dietze, P. Agarwal, and J.S. Clark. 2004. A scalable model of forest dynamics. Proceedings of the ACM Symposium on Computational Geometry, 106-115. pdf

Clark, J.S., Dietze M, Ibáñez I, Mohan J. 2003. Coexistence: how to identify trophic tradeoffs. Ecology,84:17-31. pdf


Shiklomanov, Alexey. 2018. Improving ecological forecasts using model and data constraints link
Mantooth, Joshua. 2017. Tree radial growth and carbohydrate storage in eastern U.S. temperate forests link
Feng, Xiaohui. 2014. Productivity, physiology, community dynamics, and ecological impacts of a grassland agro-ecosystem: integrating field studies and ecosystem modeling link
Davidson, Carl. 2012. The modeled effects of fire on carbon balance and vegetation abundance in Alaskan tundra link

Data Publications

NACP Site: Terrestrial Biosphere Model Output Data in Original Format Ricciuto, D.M., K. Schaefer, P.E. Thornton, R.B. Cook, R. Anderson, M.A. Arain, I. Baker, J.M. Chen, M. Dietze, R. Grant, C. Izaurralde, A.K. Jain, A.W. King, C. Kucharik, S. Liu, E. Lokupitiya, Y. Luo, C. Peng, B. Poulter, D. Price, W. Riley, A. Sahoo, H. Tian, C. Tonitto, and H. Verbeeck. 2013. NACP Site: Terrestrial Biosphere Model Output Data in Original Format. Data set. Available on-line [] from Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA.

In preparation and in review

McCabe T, M Dietze. 2018. Scaling contagious disturbance: a spatially-implicit dynamic model. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution in review

Wheeler K, M Dietze 2018 “Modeling midday NDVI from the newest Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-16)” Remote Sensing of Environment in review

Davidson et al. Parameterization and Validation of the Ecosystem Demography Model for Alaskan Tundra through Model-Data Feedbacks and Iterative Data Assimilationin review

Dietze, M., S. Govindarajan, S. Chakraborthy, J. Clark, and P. Agarwal. Are canopy gaps always bright: spatiotemporal variability in light limits the gap recruitment window. In prep.

Dietze, M. and J. Clark. The role of individual variability in the response of saplings to large forest gaps. In prep.

Govindarajan, S., S. Chakraborty, P. Agarwal, M. Dietze, J. S. Clark, and M. Wolosin. Light competition in forest canopies. In prep

McMahon, S., J.S. Clark, H. Yu, M. Dietze, P. Agarwal. Forest biodiversity is not maintained by the immigration-extinction balance In review

Wolosin, M, J. Clark, M. Dietze, S.Chakraborty, P. Agarwal, H. Schultz, M. Welsh. Light competition in large trees: how to estimate it and its importance. Ecology In prep

Wolosin, M., P. Agarwal, S.Chakraborty, J.S. Clark, M.C. Dietze. Calibration with "ground truth" or data/model assimilation? Application to canopy light availability. In prep.

Wolosin, M., P. Agarwal, J.S. Clark, M.C. Dietze, D. Winslow. Modeling exposed canopy area in mixed forests. In prep

Wolosin, M., P. Agarwal, J.S. Clark, M.C. Dietze, D. Winslow. Space-filling crowns in forest models: tree movement with fast algorithms. In prep