Erol A. Peköz

**Professor
and Department Chair**

**Operations
and Technology Management Department
Boston University Questrom School of Business**

* *

*Contact
Information*

Erol A. Peköz

595 Commonwealth Avenue, Room 607

Boston, MA 02215

Phone: (617) 353-2676

Email: pekoz at bu dot edu

* *

*Profile*

Erol Peköz has a BS degree from Cornell University, and MS and Ph.D degrees in Operations
Research from University of California, Berkeley. The research interests of
Professor Peköz cover the areas of operations research,
applied probability, data science, statistics, queueing models, supply chain
management, healthcare operations management, fintech and cryptocurrencies. His
work appears in academic journals such as *Operations Research,* *Annals
of Probability, Annals of Applied Probability, Statistics in Medicine,
Bernoulli, Electronic Journal of Probability, Journal of Applied Probability
and Medical Care. *He has conducted research funded by the Department of
Health and Human Services, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, the
Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, and the Veterans Health Administration. He has
also worked as a consultant for Pfizer and Accenture. Professor Peköz has also taught at Harvard, UCLA and also at UC
Berkeley, where he received an award for outstanding instruction. At Boston
University he was awarded the Broderick Prize for Teaching.

For a current CV click here.

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*Books*

·
S. Ross, E. Peköz. *A Second Course in Probability, 2 ^{nd}
edition*, under contract with
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2021.

· E. Peköz. *The
Manager’s Guide to Statistics, 2018 Edition.* Download data sets, watch an intro
video, look at the first chapter, order
in US or order
internationally. Bookstores or
instructors should email pekoz at bu
dot edu.

· S.
Ross, E. Peköz.* A
Second Course in Probability*. Boston:
May 1, 2007. Click here
for an electronic copy.

*Papers*

· Peköz, E., Central limit theorem convergence
rates for estimated functions at estimated points.* Under review.*

· Peköz, E., Chen, S., Pillai, N., Smith, A.,
Stanley, E. Wealth stabilization phenomenon in an exchange model for
cryptocurrencies. *Under review.*

· Peköz, E., Shwartz,
M., Chan, J., O'Brien, W., Gupta, K., Strymish,
J., Rosen, A. Feasibility of Surveying Frontline Providers to Estimate
Harm-Based Weights for use in Creating a Composite Measure from Individual
Quality Indicators. *Under review.*

· Johnson, T., Peköz,
E., Concentration inequalities
from monotone couplings for graphs, walks, trees and branching processes. *Under review.*

· Peköz, E., Ross, S., Fair Gambler's Ruin stochastically
maximizes playing time. Accepted to appear, *Advances in Applied Probability, *2022*.*

· Peköz, E., Smith, A.,
Tucker, A., Zhang, Z. COVID-19
Symptom web search surges precede local hospitalization surges. *Under Review.*

· Fang, X., Gan, H., Holmes, S., Huang, Peköz, E., H., Röllin, A., Tang,
W. Arcsine laws for random walks generated
from random permutations with applications to genomics. Accepted to
appear, *Journal of Applied Probability, *2021*.*

· Peköz, E., Ross, S., & Zhang, Z. (2020).
Dueling Bandit Problems.* Probability in
the Engineering and Informational Sciences, *1-12.

· M. Brown, E. Peköz
and S.M. Ross. Blockchain Double-Spend
Attack Duration, *Probability in the
Engineering and Informational Sciences,* (2020), pp. 1-9.

· Peköz, E., Ross, N., Röllin,
A. Exponential and Laplace approximation
for occupation statistics of branching random walk. *Electronic Journal of Probability *(2020),
paper no. 55, 22 pp.

· Adler, Y. Cao, R. Karp, E. Peköz, S. Ross. Random
Knockout Tournaments. *Operations Research, *65(6):1589-1596 (2019)

· E. Peköz, I. W. McKeague, and Y. Swan. Stein's method and approximating
the
quantum harmonic oscillator. *Bernoulli,* 25(1), 2019, 89–111

· E. Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Polya
urns with immigration at random times. *Bernoulli, 25(1), 2019,
189–220.*

· M. Brown, E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. Reflections
on new directions for an ancient science: reliability and blockchain. A
paper from the panel session held at the *10th International Conference on
Mathematical Methods in Reliability, *2018.

· E. Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Joint degree distributions of
preferential attachment random graphs. *Advances in Applied
Probability*, 49, 368–387 (2017)

· E. Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Generalized gamma approximations with
rates for urns, walk and trees. *Annals of Probability,* Vol. 44, No.
3, (2016), pp. 1776–1816.

· M Shwartz, EA Peköz, JF Burgess Jr, CL Christiansen, AK Rosen, D Berlowitz. (2014). A Probability Metric for Identifying
High-Performing Facilities: An Application for Pay-for-Performance Programs.
*Medical care* 52 (12), 1030-1036.

· E. Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Degree asymptotics
with rates for preferential attachment random graphs. *Annals of Applied
Probability, *Vol. 23, No. 3 (2013), pp. 1188 – 1218.

· E. Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Total variation and local
limit error bounds for geometric approximation. *Bernoulli*,
19(2), 2013, 610–632.

· Sullivan, J. L., Shwartz,
M., Burgess, J. F., Peköz, E. A., Christiansen, C.
L., Gerena-Melia, M., Berlowitz,
D., (2013). Person Centered
Care Practices and Quality in Department of Veterans Affairs Nursing Homes: Is
There a Relationship? *Medical Care*, 51(2), 165-171.

· M. Shwartz,
E. Peköz, J. Burgess, C. Christiansen. Shrinkage estimators for composite
measure of quality conceptualized as a formative construct.* Health
Services Research*, 2013 Feb; 48(1):271-89.

· M. Shwartz, E. Peköz, A. Labonte, J. Heineke, and J.D. Restuccia.
Bringing Small Area Variations
in Hospitalization Rates Back to the Hospital: The Propensity to Hospitalize
Index – and a Test of Roemer’s Law. *Medical Care,* Vol. 49, No. 12,
pp. 1062-1067, 2011.

· E. Peköz and A. Röllin. Exponential
approximation for the non-critical Galton-Watson process and for occupation
times of Markov chains. *Electronic Journal of Probability*, No. 51
(2011), pp. 1381–1393.

· E. Peköz
and A. Röllin. New
rates for exponential approximation and the theorems of Renyi
and Yaglom. *Annals of Probability, *Vol. 39 (2011), No. 2,
587–608.

· M. Brown, E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. Finding expectations of
monotone functions of binary random variables by simulation, with applications
to reliability, finance, and round robin tournaments. In *Stochastic
Analysis, Stochastic Systems, and Applications to Finance*, Allanus Tsoi, David Nualart,
George Yin, Editors, 2011.

· E. Peköz,
M. Shwartz, C. Christiansen, D. Berlowitz.
Approximate models for
aggregate data when individual-level data sets are very large or unavailable. * Statistics
in Medicine,* 29 (2010), pp. 2180–2193.

· Stolzmann K.L., Meterko M., Shwartz M., Young
G.J., Peköz E.A., Benzer J.K., Osatuke K., White B.
and Mohr D.C. Accounting
for Variation in Technical Quality and Patient Satisfaction: The Contribution
of Patient, Provider, Team and Medical Center. *Medical Care,*
48 (2010), no. 8, pp. 676 – 682.

· M. Brown, E. Peköz
and S.M. Ross. Some results
for skip-free random walk. *Probability in the Engineering and
Informational Sciences,* 24 (2010), 1–17.

· E. Peköz,
A. Röllin, V. Cekanavicius
and M. Shwartz. A three-parameter binomial
approximation. *Journal of Applied Probability,* 46, no. 4 (2009),
1073-1085.

· M. Brown, E. Peköz
and S.M. Ross. A Random Permutation Model
Arising in Chemistry. *Journal
of Applied Probability*, 45
(2008), no. 4, pp. 1060-1070.

· E. Peköz, S. Ross,
S. Seshadri. How Nearly Do Arriving Customers
See Time-Average Behavior? *Journal of Applied Probability*, 45
(2008), no. 4, pp. 963-971.

· E. Peköz,
S. Ross. Relating
Customer and Time Averages Using ‘Forward’ Coupling From
the Past. *Journal of Applied Probability*, 45 (2008), no. 2, pp. 568-574*.*

· M. Brown, E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. Coupon Collecting. *Probability
in the Engineering and Informational Sciences*, 22 (2008), pp. 221-229.

· M. Shwartz,
J.Ren, E. Peköz, X.Wang, A. Cohen, J.Restuccia . Estimating a Composite Measure of
Hospital Quality from the Hospital Compare Database: Differences When Using a
Bayesian Hierarchical Latent Variable Model versus Denominator-Based Weights.
*Medical Care,* Volume 46, Number 8, August 2008, pp. 778-785.

· S. Ziya,
H. Ayhan, R. Foley, E. Peköz.
A Monotonicity Result for a G/GI/c
Queue with Balking or Reneging. *Journal of Applied Probability*, 43
(2006), no. 4, pp. 1201-1205.

· E. Peköz.
A Compound Poisson
Approximation Inequality.* Journal of Applied Probability*, 43 (2006),
no. 1, pp. 282--288.

· E. Peköz,
J. Blanchet. Heavy Traffic Limits
via Brownian Embeddings. *Probability in the Engineering and
Informational Sciences*, 20 (2006), pp. 595-598

· M. Shwartz,
A. Ash, E. Peköz. Risk Adjustment and Risk-Adjusted
Provider Profiles. *Journal of Healthcare Technology and Management, *Volume
7, Number 1-2 (2006), pp. 15 - 42.

· M. Shwartz,
E. Peköz, M. Posner, J. Restuccia,
L. Iezzoni. Do Variations in Disease
Prevalence Limit the Usefulness of Population-Based Hospitalization Rates For Studying Variations in Hospital Admissions? *Medical
Care*. 43(1):4-11, January 2005.

· E. Peköz
and S.M. Ross. Compound random
variables. *Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences*,
18 (2004), no. 4, 473-484.

· E. Peköz.
Samuelson's Fallacy of Large
Numbers and Optional Stopping. Article reprinted in *Paul A.
Samuelson: Critical Assessments of Contemporary Economists*, John Cunningham
Wood and Michael McLure (eds.), New York: Routledge,
2004.

· Ash, M. Shwartz,
and E. Peköz. Comparing Outcomes Across
Providers. LI. Iezzoni, ed. *Risk Adjustment
for Measuring Health Care Outcomes, 3 ^{rd} edition.* Health
Administration Press, Chicago, IL, 2003.

· E. Peköz,
M. Shwartz, L. Iezzoni, A.
Ash, M. Posner, J. Restuccia. Comparing the Importance of
Disease Rate vs. Practice Style Variations in Explaining Small Area Variations
in Hospitalization Rates for Two Respiratory Conditions. * Statistics in
Medicine, *Vol 22, 2003, pp. 1775-1786.

· E. Peköz,
R. Righter, and C. Xia. Characterizing
Losses During Busy Periods in Finite Buffer Systems. *Journal of Applied
Probability, *40, 1, March 2003, pp. 250-256.

· E. Peköz.
Some Memoryless Bandit Policies.
*Journal of Applied Probability,* 40, 1, March 2003, pp. 250-256.

· E. Peköz
and N. Joglekar. Poisson Traffic Flow in a General
Feedback Queue. *Journal of Applied Probability, *39, 2002, pp.
630-636.

· E. Peköz.
Optimal Policies for
Multi-server Non-preemptive Priority Queues. *Queueing Systems: Theory
and Applications*, 42, 2002, pp. 91-101.

· E. Peköz.
Samuelson's Fallacy of Large
Numbers and Optional Stopping. *Journal of Risk and Insurance*, 2002,
Vol. 69, No. 1, pp. 1-7.

· E. Peköz
and M. Lapre. Inequalities for Queues with a
Learning Server. *Queueing Systems: Theory and Applications, *37,
2001, pp. 337-347.

· E. Peköz.
More on Using Forced to Idle
Time to Improve Performance in Polling Models. *Probability in the
Engineering and Informational Sciences,* 13, 1999, pp. 489 - 496.

· E. Peköz.
Ignatov's Theorem and
Correlated Record Values. *Statistics and Probability Letters*, 43,
1999, pp. 107-111.

· E. Peköz.
On the Mean Number of Refusals
in a Busy Period. *Probability in the Engineering and Informational
Sciences, *13, 1999, pp. 71-74.

· E. Peköz
and S.M. Ross. Mean Cover Times
for Coupon Collecting and Star Graphs. In *Advances in Applied
Probability and Stochastic Processes,* Academic Publishers, Boston, January
1999.

· E. Peköz.
A Note on Reliability Inequalities
Via Conditional Inequalities. *Journal of Applied Probability,* 36,
1999, pp. 1251-1254.

· E. Peköz
and S.M. Ross. Estimating the
Mean Cover Time for a Semi-Markov Process Via Simulation. *Probability in
the Engineering and Informational Sciences,* 11, 1997, pp. 267-271.

· S. Hershkorn,
E. Peköz, and S.M. Ross. Policies without Memory for the
Infinite-Armed Bernoulli Bandit under the Average-Reward Criteria. *Probability
in the Engineering and Informational Sciences,* 10, 1996, pp. 21-28.

· E. Peköz.
Stein's Method for Geometric
Approximation. *Journal of Applied Probability,* 33, 1996, pp.
707-713.

· E. Peköz
and S.M. Ross. A Simple
Derivation of Exact Reliability Formulas for Linear and Circular Consecutive *k*-of-*n:F* Systems.
*Journal of Applied Probability, *32, 1995, pp. 554-557.

· E. Peköz
and S.M. Ross. Improving
Poisson Approximations. *Probability in the Engineering and Informational
Sciences*, 8, 1994, pp. 449-462.