Volume 327:1406-1412 November 12, 1992 Number 20

Abstract

BACKGROUND. Nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation is common among the elderly and is associated with an increased risk of stroke. We investigated whether anticoagulation with warfarin would reduce this risk. METHODS. We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study to evaluate low-intensity anticoagulation with warfarin (prothrombin-time ratio, 1.2 to 1.5) in 571 men with chronic nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation; 525 patients had not previously had a cerebral infarction, whereas 46 patients had previously had such an event. The primary end point was cerebral infarction; secondary end points were cerebral hemorrhage and death. RESULTS. Among the patients with no history of stroke, cerebral infarction occurred in 19 of the 265 patients in the placebo group during an average follow-up of 1.7 years (4.3 percent per year) and in 4 of the 260 patients in the warfarin group during an average follow-up of 1.8 years (0.9 percent per year). The reduction in risk with warfarin therapy was 0.79 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.52 to 0.90; P = 0.001). The annual event rate among the 228 patients over 70 years of age was 4.8 percent in the placebo group and 0.9 percent in the warfarin group (risk reduction, 0.79; P = 0.02). The only cerebral hemorrhage occurred in a 73-year-old patient in the warfarin group. Other major hemorrhages, all gastrointestinal, occurred in 10 patients: 4 in the placebo group, for a rate of 0.9 percent per year, and 6 in the warfarin group, for a rate of 1.3 percent per year. There were 37 deaths that were not preceded by a cerebral end point--22 in the placebo group and 15 in the warfarin group (risk reduction, 0.31; P = 0.19). Cerebral infarction was more common among patients with a history of cerebral infarction (9.3 percent per year in the placebo group and 6.1 percent per year in the warfarin group) than among those without such a history. CONCLUSIONS. Low-intensity anticoagulation with warfarin prevented cerebral infarction in patients with nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation without producing an excess risk of major hemorrhage. This benefit extended to patients over 70 years of age.

Source Information

Cardiovascular Section, Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center, West Haven, CT.

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Volume 323:1505-1511 November 29, 1990 Number 22

BACKGROUND. Nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation increases the risk of stroke, presumably from atrial thromboemboli. There is uncertainty about the efficacy and risks of long-term warfarin therapy to prevent stroke. METHODS. We conducted an unblinded, randomized, controlled trial of long-term, low-dose warfarin therapy (target prothrombin-time ratio, 1.2 to 1.5) in patients with nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation. The control group was not given warfarin but could choose to take aspirin. RESULTS. A total of 420 patients entered the trial (212 in the warfarin group and 208 in the control group) and were followed for an average of 2.2 years. Prothrombin times in the warfarin group were in the target range 83 percent of the time. Only 10 percent of the patients assigned to receive warfarin discontinued the drug permanently. There were 2 strokes in the warfarin group (incidence, 0.41 percent per year) as compared with 13 strokes in the control group (incidence, 2.98 percent per year), for a reduction of 86 percent in the risk of stroke (warfarin:control incidence ratio = 0.14; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.04 to 0.49; P = 0.0022). There were 37 deaths altogether. The death rate was markedly lower in the warfarin group than in the control group: 2.25 percent as compared with 5.97 percent per year, for an incidence ratio of 0.38 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.17 to 0.82; P = 0.005). There was one fatal hemorrhage in each group. The frequency of bleeding events that led to hospitalization or transfusion was essentially the same in both groups. The warfarin group had a higher rate of minor hemorrhage than the control group (38 vs. 21 patients). CONCLUSIONS. Long-term low-dose warfarin therapy is highly effective in preventing stroke in patients with non-rheumatic atrial fibrillation, and can be quite safe with careful monitoring.