Erol A. Peköz

**Professor of Operations and Technology Management
Boston University School of Management**

*Contact
Information*

Erol A. Peköz

595 Commonwealth Avenue, Room 607

Boston, MA 02215

Phone: (617) 353-2676, Fax: (617) 353-4098

Email: pekoz bu edu

*Profile*

Erol Peköz has a BS degree from Cornell University,
and MS and Ph.D degrees in Operations Research from
University of California, Berkeley. Working in the areas of applied probability
and statistics, Professor Peköz studies probability
approximations surrounding rare events for stochastic models, queueing models for congestion and statistical models for
health care provider profiling. His work appears in academic journals such as *Annals of Probability, Annals of Applied
Probability, Statistics in Medicine, Bernoulli, Journal of Applied Probability and Medical
Care. *He has conducted research funded by the Department of Health
and Human Services, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, the Robert Wood
Johnson Foundation, and the Veterans Health Administration. He has also worked
as a consultant for Pfizer and the Accenture Institute for High Performance
Business. Professor Peköz has also taught on the
faculty at Harvard, UCLA and also at UC Berkeley, where he received an award
for outstanding instruction. At Boston
University he was awarded the Broderick Prize for Teaching.

*Software*

·
*Stepwise
Regression for Excel*

*Books*

·
S. Ross, E. Peköz.* A
Second Course in Probability*, ProbabilityBookstore.com, Boston: May 1, 2007. Read an interview about it here, a
review from the MAA (Mathematical Association of America) here, a review from Choice
Magazine here,
and a review from Amazon here.

·
E. Peköz. *The Manager’s Guide to Statistics, 2014
edition*. ProbabilityBookstore.com,
Boston: 2014. Read a review from* The
American Statistician *here.

*Papers*

·
E.
Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Joint
degree distributions of preferential attachment random graphs. *Under review.*

·
E. Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Generalized gamma approximations with
rates for urns, walk and trees. *Under
review.*

·
E. Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Degree asymptotics
with rates for preferential attachment random graphs. *Annals of Applied Probability, *Vol.
23, No. 3 (2013), pp. 1188 – 1218.

·
E. Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Total variation and local
limit error bounds for geometric approximation. *Bernoulli*,
19(2), 2013, 610–632.

·
Sullivan, J. L., Shwartz, M., Burgess,
J. F., Peköz, E. A., Christiansen, C. L., Gerena-Melia, M., Berlowitz, D.,
(2013). Person Centered Care
Practices and Quality in Department of Veterans Affairs Nursing Homes: Is There
a Relationship? *Medical Care*,
51(2), 165-171.

·
M. Shwartz, E. Peköz, J. Burgess, C. Christiansen. Shrinkage estimators for composite
measure of quality conceptualized as a formative construct.* Health Services Research*, 2013 Feb;
48(1):271-89.

·
E. Peköz and
A. Röllin. Exponential approximation for
the non-critical Galton-Watson process and for occupation times of Markov
chains. *Electronic Journal of Probability*, No. 51 (2011), pp. 1381–1393.

·
E. Peköz and A. Röllin. New rates for
exponential approximation and the theorems of Renyi
and Yaglom. *Annals of
Probability, *Vol.
39 (2011), No. 2, 587–608.

·
M. Shwartz, E. Peköz,
A. Labonte, J. Heineke, and J.D. Restuccia. Bringing Small Area Variations in
Hospitalization Rates Back to the Hospital: The Propensity to Hospitalize Index
– and a Test of Roemer’s Law. *Medical
Care,* Vol. 49, No. 12, pp. 1062-1067, 2011.

·
M. Brown, E. Peköz and S.M.
Ross. Finding expectations
of monotone functions of binary random variables by simulation, with
applications to reliability, finance, and round robin tournaments. In *Stochastic Analysis, Stochastic Systems, and
Applications to Finance*, Allanus Tsoi, David Nualart, George Yin,
Editors, 2011.

·
E. Peköz, M. Shwartz, C. Christiansen,
D. Berlowitz. Approximate
models for aggregate data when individual-level data sets are very large or
unavailable. * Statistics in Medicine,* 29 (2010), pp.
2180–2193.

·
M. Brown, E. Peköz
and S.M. Ross. Some results
for skip-free random walk. *Probability
in the Engineering and Informational Sciences,* 24 (2010), 1–17.

·
Stolzmann K.L., Meterko M., Shwartz M., Young G.J., Peköz E.A., Benzer J.K., Osatuke K., White B.
and Mohr D.C. Accounting for Variation in
Technical Quality and Patient Satisfaction: The Contribution of Patient,
Provider, Team and Medical Center. *Medical Care,* 48 (2010), no. 8, pp. 676
– 682.

·
E. Peköz, A. Röllin, V. Cekanavicius and M.
Shwartz. A three-parameter
binomial approximation. *Journal of
Applied Probability,* 46, no. 4 (2009), 1073-1085.

·
M.
Brown, E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. A
Random Permutation Model Arising in Chemistry. *Journal of Applied Probability*, 45 (2008), no. 4, pp. 1060-1070.

·
E.
Peköz, S. Ross, S. Seshadri.
How Nearly Do Arriving Customers
See Time-Average Behavior? *Journal of
Applied Probability*, 45 (2008), no. 4, pp. 963-971.

·
E. Peköz, S. Ross. Relating Customer and Time
Averages Using ‘Forward’ Coupling From the Past. *Journal of Applied
Probability*, 45
(2008), no. 2, pp. 568-574*.*

·
M. Shwartz, J.Ren, E. Peköz, X.Wang, A. Cohen, J.Restuccia . Estimating
a Composite Measure of Hospital Quality from the Hospital Compare Database:
Differences When Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Latent Variable Model versus
Denominator-Based Weights. *Medical Care,* Volume 46, Number 8,
August 2008, pp. 778-785.

·
M. Brown, E. Peköz and S.M.
Ross. Coupon Collecting. *Probability in the Engineering and
Informational Sciences*, 22 (2008), pp. 221-229.

·
S. Ziya, H. Ayhan,
R. Foley, E. Peköz. A Monotonicity Result for a G/GI/c
Queue with Balking or Reneging. *Journal of Applied Probability*, 43
(2006), no. 4, pp. 1201-1205.

·
E. Peköz. A Compound Poisson
Approximation Inequality.* Journal of Applied Probability*, 43 (2006),
no. 1, pp. 282--288.

·
E. Peköz, J. Blanchet. Heavy Traffic Limits via Brownian Embeddings. *Probability in the Engineering and
Informational Sciences*, 20 (2006), pp. 595-598

·
M. Shwartz, A. Ash, E. Peköz. Risk Adjustment and Risk-Adjusted
Provider Profiles. *Journal of Healthcare Technology and Management, *Volume
7, Number 1-2 (2006), pp. 15 - 42.

·
M. Shwartz, E. Peköz, M. Posner, J.
Restuccia, L. Iezzoni. Do Variations in Disease
Prevalence Limit the Usefulness of Population-Based Hospitalization Rates For Studying
Variations in Hospital Admissions? *Medical Care*. 43(1):4-11, January
2005.

·
E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. Compound random variables. *Probability
in the Engineering and Informational Sciences*, 18 (2004), no. 4, 473-484.

·
E. Peköz. Samuelson's Fallacy of Large Numbers
and Optional Stopping. Article
reprinted in *Paul A. Samuelson: Critical Assessments of Contemporary
Economists*, John Cunningham Wood and Michael McLure
(eds.), New York: Routledge, 2004.

·
E. Peköz, R. Righter, and C. Xia. Characterizing Losses During Busy Periods in Finite Buffer Systems. *Journal
of Applied Probability, *40, 1, March 2003, pp. 250-256.

·
E. Peköz. Some Memoryless
Bandit Policies. *Journal of Applied Probability,* 40, 1, March 2003,
pp. 250-256.

·
Ash,
M. Shwartz, and E. Peköz. Comparing Outcomes Across Providers. LI. Iezzoni,
ed. *Risk Adjustment for Measuring Health Care Outcomes, 3 ^{rd}
edition.* Health Administration
Press, Chicago, IL, 2003.

·
E. Peköz, M. Shwartz, L. Iezzoni, A. Ash, M. Posner, J. Restuccia. Comparing the Importance of
Disease Rate vs. Practice Style Variations in Explaining Small Area Variations in
Hospitalization Rates for Two Respiratory Conditions. * Statistics in Medicine, *Vol 22, 2003, pp.
1775-1786.

·
E. Peköz and N. Joglekar. Poisson Traffic Flow in a General
Feedback Queue. *Journal of Applied Probability, *39, 2002, pp.
630-636.

·
E. Peköz. Optimal Policies for
Multi-server Non-preemptive Priority Queues. *Queueing**
Systems: Theory and Applications*, 42, 2002, pp. 91-101.

·
E. Peköz. Samuelson's Fallacy of Large Numbers
and Optional Stopping. *Journal of Risk and Insurance*, 2002, Vol. 69,
No. 1, pp. 1-7.

·
E. Peköz and M. Lapre.
Inequalities for Queues with
a Learning Server. *Queueing** Systems:
Theory and Applications, *37, 2001, pp. 337-347.

·
E. Peköz. More on Using Forced to Idle Time
to Improve Performance in Polling Models. *Probability in the Engineering
and Informational Sciences,* 13, 1999, pp. 489 - 496.

·
E. Peköz. Ignatov's
Theorem and Correlated Record Values. *Statistics and Probability Letters*,
43, 1999, pp. 107-111.

·
E. Peköz. On the Mean Number of Refusals in
a Busy Period. *Probability in the Engineering and Informational
Sciences, *13, 1999, pp. 71-74.

·
E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. Mean Cover Times for Coupon
Collecting and Star Graphs. In *Advances in Applied Probability and
Stochastic Processes,* Academic Publishers, Boston, January 1999.

·
E. Peköz. A Note on Reliability Inequalities Via Conditional Inequalities. *Journal of Applied
Probability,* 36, 1999, pp. 1251-1254.

·
E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. Estimating the Mean Cover Time for
a Semi-Markov Process Via Simulation. *Probability
in the Engineering and Informational Sciences,* 11, 1997, pp. 267-271.

·
S. Hershkorn, E. Peköz,
and S.M. Ross. Policies
without Memory for the Infinite-Armed Bernoulli Bandit under the Average-Reward
Criteria. *Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences,*
10, 1996, pp. 21-28.

·
E. Peköz. Stein's Method for Geometric
Approximation. *Journal of Applied Probability,* 33, 1996, pp.
707-713.

·
E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. A Simple Derivation of Exact
Reliability Formulas for Linear and Circular Consecutive *k*-of-*n:F* Systems. *Journal of Applied
Probability, *32, 1995, pp. 554-557.

·
E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. Improving Poisson
Approximations. *Probability in the Engineering and Informational
Sciences*, 8, 1994, pp. 449-462.

*Links*

·
My CV