Erol A. Peköz

**Professor of Operations and Technology Management
Boston University Questrom School of Business**

*Contact
Information*

Erol A. Peköz

595 Commonwealth Avenue, Room 607

Boston, MA 02215

Phone: (617) 353-2676

Email: pekoz bu edu

*Profile*

Erol
Peköz has a BS degree from Cornell University, and MS and Ph.D degrees in
Operations Research from University of California, Berkeley. The research of
Professor Peköz is focused in three areas: probability approximations and
network science, healthcare quality and provider profiling, and queueing models
and reliability for operations. His work appears in academic journals such as *Annals of Probability, Annals of Applied
Probability, Statistics in Medicine,
Bernoulli, Journal of Applied
Probability and Medical Care. *He has conducted research funded by
the Department of Health and Human Services, Agency for Healthcare Research and
Quality, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, and the Veterans Health
Administration. He has also worked as a consultant for Pfizer and Accenture,
and is currently involved with launching a startup. Professor Peköz has also
taught at Harvard, UCLA and also at UC Berkeley, where he received an award for
outstanding instruction. At Boston
University he was awarded the Broderick Prize for Teaching. For a current CV
click here.

*Books*

·
E. Peköz. *The
Manager’s Guide to Statistics, 2016 edition*. ProbabilityBookstore.com, Boston: 2015.
Download data sets or
order from Amazon
or Barnes
and Noble (used books may be old editions).
Bookstores or instructors should email pekoz at bu dot edu or phone
(617) 353-2676.

·
S. Ross, E. Peköz.* A
Second Course in Probability*, ProbabilityBookstore.com, Boston: May 1, 2007.

*Software*

·
*Stepwise
Regression for Excel *

*Probability Approximations and Network Science*

The goal of this research is to better understand the growth and
structure of networks, for example those arising in social networks and in the
healthcare sector. Here we have developed
and tested a number of approximations for models used to predict behavior of
these networks.

·
E.
Peköz, I. W. McKeague, and Y. Swan. Stein's method, many interacting
worlds and quantum mechanics. *Under
review.*

·
E.
Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Joint
degree distributions of preferential attachment random graphs. *Under review.*

·
E.
Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Generalized
gamma approximations with rates for urns, walk and trees. *Annals of Probability,* Vol. 44, No. 3,
(2016), pp. 1776–1816.

·
E.
Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Degree asymptotics with
rates for preferential attachment random graphs. *Annals of Applied Probability, *Vol.
23, No. 3 (2013), pp. 1188 – 1218.

·
E. Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Total variation and local
limit error bounds for geometric approximation. *Bernoulli*,
19(2), 2013, 610–632.

·
E. Peköz and A. Röllin. Exponential approximation for
the non-critical Galton-Watson process and for occupation times of Markov
chains. *Electronic Journal of Probability*, No. 51 (2011), pp. 1381–1393.

·
E. Peköz and A. Röllin. New rates for exponential
approximation and the theorems of Renyi and Yaglom. *Annals of Probability, *Vol. 39 (2011),
No. 2, 587–608.

·
E. Peköz, A. Röllin, V. Cekanavicius and M. Shwartz. A three-parameter binomial
approximation. *Journal of Applied
Probability,* 46, no. 4 (2009), 1073-1085.

·
E. Peköz. Stein's
Method for Geometric Approximation. *Journal of Applied Probability,*
33, 1996, pp. 707-713.

*Healthcare Quality Measurement and Provider
Profiling*

The goal of this research is to produce better methods for
assessing healthcare provider performance with respect to quality and using
these to rank providers. Here we have developed and tested a number of new
methods that show promise for changing the way healthcare quality is measured
and rewarded.

·
M Shwartz, EA Peköz, JF Burgess Jr, CL
Christiansen, AK Rosen, D Berlowitz. (2014). A Probability Metric for Identifying
High-Performing Facilities: An Application for Pay-for-Performance Programs.
*Medical care* 52 (12), 1030-1036.

·
Sullivan, J. L., Shwartz, M., Burgess,
J. F., Peköz, E. A., Christiansen, C. L., Gerena-Melia, M., Berlowitz, D.,
(2013). Person Centered Care
Practices and Quality in Department of Veterans Affairs Nursing Homes: Is There
a Relationship? *Medical Care*,
51(2), 165-171.

·
M. Shwartz, E. Peköz, J.
Burgess, C. Christiansen. Shrinkage
estimators for composite measure of quality conceptualized as a formative
construct.* Health Services Research*,
2013 Feb; 48(1):271-89.

·
M. Shwartz, E. Peköz, A. Labonte, J.
Heineke, and J.D. Restuccia. Bringing Small Area Variations in
Hospitalization Rates Back to the Hospital: The Propensity to Hospitalize Index
– and a Test of Roemer’s Law. *Medical
Care,* Vol. 49, No. 12, pp. 1062-1067, 2011.

·
E. Peköz, M. Shwartz, C. Christiansen, D. Berlowitz. Approximate models for
aggregate data when individual-level data sets are very large or unavailable. * Statistics in Medicine,* 29 (2010), pp. 2180–2193.

·
Stolzmann K.L., Meterko M., Shwartz M., Young G.J., Peköz E.A., Benzer J.K., Osatuke K., White B.
and Mohr D.C. Accounting for Variation in Technical
Quality and Patient Satisfaction: The Contribution of Patient, Provider, Team
and Medical Center. *Medical Care,* 48 (2010), no. 8, pp. 676
– 682.

·
M. Shwartz, J.Ren, E. Peköz, X.Wang, A. Cohen,
J.Restuccia . Estimating a Composite Measure of
Hospital Quality from the Hospital Compare Database: Differences When Using a
Bayesian Hierarchical Latent Variable Model versus Denominator-Based Weights.

·
M. Shwartz, A. Ash, E. Peköz. Risk Adjustment and Risk-Adjusted
Provider Profiles. *Journal of Healthcare Technology and Management, *Volume
7, Number 1-2 (2006), pp. 15 - 42.

·
M. Shwartz, E. Peköz, M. Posner, J. Restuccia, L. Iezzoni. Do Variations in Disease
Prevalence Limit the Usefulness of Population-Based Hospitalization Rates For
Studying Variations in Hospital Admissions? *Medical Care*.
43(1):4-11, January 2005.

·
Ash,
M. Shwartz, and E. Peköz. Comparing Outcomes Across
Providers. LI. Iezzoni, ed. *Risk Adjustment for Measuring Health Care
Outcomes, 3 ^{rd} edition.*
Health Administration Press, Chicago, IL, 2003.

·
E. Peköz, M. Shwartz, L. Iezzoni, A. Ash, M. Posner, J. Restuccia.
Comparing the Importance
of Disease Rate vs. Practice Style Variations in Explaining Small Area
Variations in Hospitalization Rates for Two Respiratory Conditions. * Statistics in Medicine, *Vol 22, 2003, pp.
1775-1786.

*Queueing models and Reliability for Operations*

The
goal of this research is to develop new methods for predicting congestion and
reliability lapses in operations systems. Here we have developed methods for
solving a number of challenging models used for forecasting the behavior of
complex systems in operations management.

·
M. Brown, E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. Finding expectations of
monotone functions of binary random variables by simulation, with applications
to reliability, finance, and round robin tournaments. In *Stochastic Analysis, Stochastic Systems, and
Applications to Finance*, Allanus Tsoi, David Nualart, George Yin, Editors,
2011.

·
M. Brown, E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. Some results for skip-free
random walk. *Probability in the
Engineering and Informational Sciences,* 24 (2010), 1–17.

·
M.
Brown, E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. A Random Permutation Model
Arising in Chemistry. *Journal
of Applied Probability*, 45
(2008), no. 4, pp. 1060-1070.

·
E.
Peköz, S. Ross, S. Seshadri. How Nearly Do Arriving Customers
See Time-Average Behavior? *Journal of
Applied Probability*, 45 (2008), no. 4, pp. 963-971.

·
E. Peköz, S. Ross.
Relating Customer and
Time Averages Using ‘Forward’ Coupling From the Past. *Journal of Applied
Probability*, 45
(2008), no. 2, pp. 568-574*.*

·
*Medical Care,* Volume 46,
Number 8, August 2008, pp. 778-785.

·
M. Brown, E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. Coupon Collecting. *Probability in the Engineering and
Informational Sciences*, 22 (2008), pp. 221-229.

·
S. Ziya, H. Ayhan, R. Foley, E. Peköz. A Monotonicity Result for a G/GI/c
Queue with Balking or Reneging. *Journal of Applied Probability*, 43
(2006), no. 4, pp. 1201-1205.

·
E. Peköz. A
Compound Poisson Approximation Inequality.* Journal of Applied
Probability*, 43 (2006), no. 1, pp. 282--288.

·
E. Peköz, J. Blanchet. Heavy
Traffic Limits via Brownian Embeddings. *Probability in the Engineering
and Informational Sciences*, 20 (2006), pp. 595-598

·
E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. Compound random variables. *Probability
in the Engineering and Informational Sciences*, 18 (2004), no. 4, 473-484.

·
E. Peköz. Samuelson's
Fallacy of Large Numbers and Optional Stopping. Article reprinted in *Paul A. Samuelson:
Critical Assessments of Contemporary Economists*, John Cunningham Wood and
Michael McLure (eds.), New York: Routledge, 2004.

·
E. Peköz, R. Righter, and C. Xia. Characterizing Losses During Busy
Periods in Finite Buffer Systems. *Journal of Applied Probability, *40,
1, March 2003, pp. 250-256.

·
E. Peköz. Some
Memoryless Bandit Policies. *Journal of Applied Probability,* 40, 1,
March 2003, pp. 250-256.

·
E. Peköz and N. Joglekar. Poisson Traffic Flow in a General
Feedback Queue. *Journal of Applied Probability, *39, 2002, pp.
630-636.

·
E. Peköz. Optimal
Policies for Multi-server Non-preemptive Priority Queues. *Queueing
Systems: Theory and Applications*, 42, 2002, pp. 91-101.

·
E. Peköz. Samuelson's
Fallacy of Large Numbers and Optional Stopping. *Journal of Risk and
Insurance*, 2002, Vol. 69, No. 1, pp. 1-7.

·
E. Peköz and M. Lapre. Inequalities for Queues with a
Learning Server. *Queueing Systems: Theory and Applications, *37,
2001, pp. 337-347.

·
E. Peköz. More on
Using Forced to Idle Time to Improve Performance in Polling Models. *Probability
in the Engineering and Informational Sciences,* 13, 1999, pp. 489 - 496.

·
E. Peköz. Ignatov's
Theorem and Correlated Record Values. *Statistics and Probability Letters*,
43, 1999, pp. 107-111.

·
E. Peköz. On the
Mean Number of Refusals in a Busy Period. *Probability in the Engineering
and Informational Sciences, *13, 1999, pp. 71-74.

·
E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. Mean Cover Times for Coupon
Collecting and Star Graphs. In *Advances in Applied Probability and
Stochastic Processes,* Academic Publishers, Boston, January 1999.

·
E. Peköz. A Note on
Reliability Inequalities Via Conditional Inequalities. *Journal of Applied
Probability,* 36, 1999, pp. 1251-1254.

·
E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. Estimating the Mean Cover Time for
a Semi-Markov Process Via Simulation. *Probability in the Engineering and
Informational Sciences,* 11, 1997, pp. 267-271.

·
S. Hershkorn, E. Peköz, and S.M. Ross. Policies without Memory for the
Infinite-Armed Bernoulli Bandit under the Average-Reward Criteria. *Probability
in the Engineering and Informational Sciences,* 10, 1996, pp. 21-28.

·
E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. A Simple Derivation of Exact
Reliability Formulas for Linear and Circular Consecutive *k*-of-*n:F*
Systems. *Journal of Applied Probability, *32, 1995, pp. 554-557.

·
E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. Improving Poisson
Approximations. *Probability in the Engineering and Informational
Sciences*, 8, 1994, pp. 449-462.