Erol A. Peköz

**Professor of Operations and Technology Management
Boston University Questrom School of Business**

*Contact
Information*

Erol A. Peköz

595 Commonwealth Avenue, Room 607

Boston, MA 02215

Phone: (617) 353-2676

Email: pekoz bu edu

*Profile*

Erol Peköz has a BS degree from Cornell University,
and MS and Ph.D degrees in Operations Research from
University of California, Berkeley. The research of Professor Peköz is focused in three areas:
probability approximations and network science, healthcare quality and provider
profiling, and queueing models and reliability for operations. His work appears
in academic journals such as *Annals of
Probability, Annals of Applied Probability, Statistics in Medicine, Bernoulli, Journal of Applied Probability and Medical
Care. *He has conducted research funded by the Department of Health
and Human Services, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, the Robert Wood
Johnson Foundation, and the Veterans Health Administration. He has also worked
as a consultant for Pfizer and Accenture. Professor Peköz
has also taught at Harvard, UCLA and also at UC
Berkeley, where he received an award for outstanding instruction. At Boston University
he was awarded the Broderick Prize for Teaching. For a current CV click here.

*Books*

·
E. Peköz. *The
Manager’s Guide to Statistics, 2018 Edition.* ProbabilityBookstore.com. Download data sets. Bookstores or instructors should email pekoz at bu dot edu or phone (617) 353-2676.

·
S. Ross, E. Peköz.* A
Second Course in Probability*, ProbabilityBookstore.com, Boston: May 1, 2007.

*Working Papers*

·
M. Brown, E. Peköz and S.M.
Ross. Blockchain
Double-Spend Attack Duration.

·
A. Akkas and E. Peköz.
Batching and Waste in Perishable Supply Chains.

·
Z. Zhang, E. Peköz and S.M.
Ross.
Dueling bandit problems.

·
E. Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Occupation statistics for critical
branching random walk.

·
S. Chen, E. Peköz, N.
Pillai, A. Smith, E. Stanley. Peeking into the future: non-Markovian coupling
and a wealth exchange model for cryptocurrencies.

·
Bhaswar
Bhattacharya, Sourav Chatterjee, Persi
Diaconis, Xiao Fang, Han Liang Gan,
Haiyan Huang, Adrian Röllin, Wenpin Tang, and Jon Wellner. Random walk generated from random permutations:
when Stein meets Levy.

*Probability Approximations and Network Science*

The goal of this research is to better understand the growth and
structure of networks, for example those arising in social networks and in the
healthcare sector. Here we have
developed and tested a number of approximations for models used to predict
behavior of these networks.

·
I.
Adler, Y. Cao, R. Karp, E. Peköz, S. Ross. Random Knockout Tournaments. *Operations Research, *65(6):1589-1596
(2019)

·
E. Peköz, I. W. McKeague, and Y. Swan. Stein's
method and approximating the quantum harmonic oscillator.
*Bernoulli,* 25(1), 2019, 89–111

·
E. Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Polya
urns with immigration at random times.
*Bernoulli, 25(1), 2019, 189–220.*

·
M. Brown, E. Peköz and S.M.
Ross. Reflections on new directions for
an ancient science: reliability and blockchain. A
paper from the panel session held at the *10th
International*

*Conference on Mathematical Methods in
Reliability, *2018.

·
E. Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Joint degree distributions of
preferential attachment random graphs.
*Advances in Applied Probability*,
49, 368–387 (2017)

·
E. Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Generalized gamma approximations with
rates for urns, walk and trees. *Annals
of Probability,* Vol. 44, No. 3, (2016), pp. 1776–1816.

·
E. Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Degree asymptotics
with rates for preferential attachment random graphs. *Annals of Applied Probability, *Vol.
23, No. 3 (2013), pp. 1188 – 1218.

·
E. Peköz, A. Röllin and N. Ross. Total variation and local
limit error bounds for geometric approximation. *Bernoulli*,
19(2), 2013, 610–632.

·
E. Peköz and
A. Röllin. Exponential approximation for
the non-critical Galton-Watson process and for occupation times of Markov
chains. *Electronic Journal of Probability*, No. 51 (2011), pp. 1381–1393.

·
E. Peköz and A. Röllin. New rates for
exponential approximation and the theorems of Renyi
and Yaglom. *Annals of
Probability, *Vol.
39 (2011), No. 2, 587–608.

·
E. Peköz, A. Röllin, V. Cekanavicius and M.
Shwartz. A three-parameter
binomial approximation. *Journal of
Applied Probability,* 46, no. 4 (2009), 1073-1085.

·
E. Peköz. Stein's Method for Geometric
Approximation. *Journal of Applied Probability,* 33, 1996, pp.
707-713.

*Healthcare Quality Measurement and Provider
Profiling*

The goal of this research is to produce better methods for
assessing healthcare provider performance with respect to quality and using
these to rank providers. Here we have developed and tested a number of new methods
that show promise for changing the way healthcare quality is measured and
rewarded.

·
M Shwartz, EA Peköz,
JF Burgess Jr, CL Christiansen, AK Rosen, D Berlowitz.
(2014). A Probability Metric for
Identifying High-Performing Facilities: An Application for Pay-for-Performance
Programs. *Medical care* 52 (12),
1030-1036.

·
Sullivan, J. L., Shwartz, M., Burgess,
J. F., Peköz, E. A., Christiansen, C. L., Gerena-Melia, M., Berlowitz, D.,
(2013). Person Centered Care
Practices and Quality in Department of Veterans Affairs Nursing Homes: Is There
a Relationship? *Medical Care*,
51(2), 165-171.

·
M. Shwartz, E. Peköz, J. Burgess, C. Christiansen. Shrinkage estimators for composite
measure of quality conceptualized as a formative construct.* Health Services Research*, 2013 Feb;
48(1):271-89.

·
M. Shwartz, E. Peköz,
A. Labonte, J. Heineke, and J.D. Restuccia. Bringing Small Area Variations in
Hospitalization Rates Back to the Hospital: The Propensity to Hospitalize Index
– and a Test of Roemer’s Law. *Medical
Care,* Vol. 49, No. 12, pp. 1062-1067, 2011.

·
E. Peköz, M. Shwartz, C. Christiansen,
D. Berlowitz. Approximate
models for aggregate data when individual-level data sets are very large or
unavailable. * Statistics in Medicine,* 29 (2010), pp. 2180–2193.

·
Stolzmann K.L., Meterko M., Shwartz M., Young G.J., Peköz E.A., Benzer J.K., Osatuke K., White B.
and Mohr D.C. Accounting for Variation in Technical
Quality and Patient Satisfaction: The Contribution of Patient, Provider, Team
and Medical Center. *Medical Care,* 48 (2010), no. 8, pp. 676
– 682.

·
M. Shwartz, J.Ren, E. Peköz, X.Wang, A. Cohen, J.Restuccia . Estimating
a Composite Measure of Hospital Quality from the Hospital Compare Database:
Differences When Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Latent Variable Model versus
Denominator-Based Weights.

·
M. Shwartz, A. Ash, E. Peköz. Risk Adjustment and Risk-Adjusted
Provider Profiles. *Journal of Healthcare Technology and Management, *Volume
7, Number 1-2 (2006), pp. 15 - 42.

·
M. Shwartz, E. Peköz, M. Posner, J.
Restuccia, L. Iezzoni. Do Variations in Disease
Prevalence Limit the Usefulness of Population-Based Hospitalization Rates For
Studying Variations in Hospital Admissions? *Medical Care*.
43(1):4-11, January 2005.

·
Ash,
M. Shwartz, and E. Peköz. Comparing Outcomes Across Providers. LI. Iezzoni,
ed. *Risk Adjustment for Measuring Health Care Outcomes, 3 ^{rd}
edition.* Health Administration
Press, Chicago, IL, 2003.

·
E. Peköz, M. Shwartz, L. Iezzoni, A. Ash, M. Posner, J. Restuccia. Comparing the Importance of
Disease Rate vs. Practice Style Variations in Explaining Small Area Variations
in Hospitalization Rates for Two Respiratory Conditions. * Statistics in Medicine, *Vol 22, 2003, pp.
1775-1786.

*Queueing models and Reliability for Operations*

The
goal of this research is to develop new methods for predicting congestion and
reliability lapses in operations systems. Here we have developed methods for
solving a number of challenging models used for forecasting the behavior of
complex systems in operations management.

·
M. Brown, E. Peköz and S.M.
Ross. Finding expectations
of monotone functions of binary random variables by simulation, with
applications to reliability, finance, and round robin tournaments. In *Stochastic Analysis, Stochastic Systems, and
Applications to Finance*, Allanus Tsoi, David Nualart, George Yin,
Editors, 2011.

·
M. Brown, E. Peköz
and S.M. Ross. Some results
for skip-free random walk. *Probability
in the Engineering and Informational Sciences,* 24 (2010), 1–17.

·
M.
Brown, E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. A
Random Permutation Model Arising in Chemistry. *Journal of Applied Probability*, 45 (2008), no. 4, pp. 1060-1070.

·
E.
Peköz, S. Ross, S. Seshadri.
How Nearly Do Arriving Customers
See Time-Average Behavior? *Journal of
Applied Probability*, 45 (2008), no. 4, pp. 963-971.

·
E. Peköz, S. Ross. Relating Customer and Time
Averages Using ‘Forward’ Coupling From the Past. *Journal of Applied
Probability*, 45
(2008), no. 2, pp. 568-574*.*

·
*Medical Care,* Volume 46,
Number 8, August 2008, pp. 778-785.

·
M. Brown, E. Peköz and S.M.
Ross. Coupon Collecting. *Probability in the Engineering and
Informational Sciences*, 22 (2008), pp. 221-229.

·
S. Ziya, H. Ayhan,
R. Foley, E. Peköz. A Monotonicity Result for a G/GI/c
Queue with Balking or Reneging. *Journal of Applied Probability*, 43
(2006), no. 4, pp. 1201-1205.

·
E. Peköz. A Compound Poisson
Approximation Inequality.* Journal of Applied Probability*, 43 (2006),
no. 1, pp. 282--288.

·
E. Peköz, J. Blanchet. Heavy Traffic Limits via Brownian Embeddings. *Probability in the Engineering and
Informational Sciences*, 20 (2006), pp. 595-598

·
E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. Compound random variables. *Probability
in the Engineering and Informational Sciences*, 18 (2004), no. 4, 473-484.

·
E. Peköz. Samuelson's Fallacy of Large Numbers
and Optional Stopping. Article reprinted
in *Paul A. Samuelson: Critical Assessments of Contemporary Economists*,
John Cunningham Wood and Michael McLure (eds.), New
York: Routledge, 2004.

·
E. Peköz, R. Righter, and C. Xia. Characterizing Losses During Busy Periods in Finite Buffer Systems. *Journal
of Applied Probability, *40, 1, March 2003, pp. 250-256.

·
E. Peköz. Some Memoryless Bandit Policies.
*Journal of Applied Probability,* 40, 1, March 2003, pp. 250-256.

·
E. Peköz and N. Joglekar. Poisson Traffic Flow in a General
Feedback Queue. *Journal of Applied Probability, *39, 2002, pp.
630-636.

·
E. Peköz. Optimal Policies for
Multi-server Non-preemptive Priority Queues. *Queueing Systems: Theory
and Applications*, 42, 2002, pp. 91-101.

·
E. Peköz. Samuelson's Fallacy of Large Numbers
and Optional Stopping. *Journal of Risk and Insurance*, 2002, Vol. 69,
No. 1, pp. 1-7.

·
E. Peköz and M. Lapre.
Inequalities for Queues with
a Learning Server. *Queueing Systems: Theory and Applications, *37,
2001, pp. 337-347.

·
E. Peköz. More on Using Forced to Idle Time
to Improve Performance in Polling Models. *Probability in the Engineering
and Informational Sciences,* 13, 1999, pp. 489 - 496.

·
E. Peköz. Ignatov's Theorem and Correlated Record Values. *Statistics
and Probability Letters*, 43, 1999, pp. 107-111.

·
E. Peköz. On the Mean Number of Refusals in
a Busy Period. *Probability in the Engineering and Informational
Sciences, *13, 1999, pp. 71-74.

·
E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. Mean Cover Times for Coupon
Collecting and Star Graphs. In *Advances in Applied Probability and
Stochastic Processes,* Academic Publishers, Boston, January 1999.

·
E. Peköz. A Note on Reliability Inequalities Via Conditional Inequalities. *Journal of Applied
Probability,* 36, 1999, pp. 1251-1254.

·
E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. Estimating the Mean Cover Time for
a Semi-Markov Process Via Simulation. *Probability
in the Engineering and Informational Sciences,* 11, 1997, pp. 267-271.

·
S. Hershkorn, E. Peköz,
and S.M. Ross. Policies
without Memory for the Infinite-Armed Bernoulli Bandit under the Average-Reward
Criteria. *Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences,*
10, 1996, pp. 21-28.

·
E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. A Simple Derivation of Exact
Reliability Formulas for Linear and Circular Consecutive *k*-of-*n:F* Systems. *Journal of Applied
Probability, *32, 1995, pp. 554-557.

·
E. Peköz and S.M. Ross. Improving Poisson
Approximations. *Probability in the Engineering and Informational
Sciences*, 8, 1994, pp. 449-462.