Current work in progress (papers coming soon)

(1)  Financial Distress and Time-Varying Uncertainty


(2)  Investing in Demand over the Business Cycle (with Leena Rudanko)





(3)  Can Intangible Capital Explain the Cyclical Movements in the Labor Wedge? With L Rudanko.

Forthcoming, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2014.    Programs (zipped folder)


(4)  Customer Capital, with L. Rudanko (November 2013), Forthcoming, Review of Economic Studies.


(5)  Size-Dependent Regulations, Firm Size Distribution, and Reallocation, (November 2013) with N. Roys - Forthcoming, Quantitative Economics


 Programs (zipped folder)

(6)  Credit risk and Disaster risk AEJ: Macroeconomics, 5(3):1-34, 2013. Appendix Programs (zipped folder)


(7)  International Risk Cycles, with M. Siemer and A. Verdelhan, Journal of International Economics, 89(2):471-484, 2013. Appendix.


(8)  Disaster Risk and Business Cycles American Economic Review, 102(6):2734-2766, 2012. Appendix   Programs.

Previous version (simpler model, empirical exercise) and Appendix   Programs.

(9)  Putty-Clay Technology and Stock Market Volatility Appendix. Journal of Monetary Economics, 58(2):117-131, 2011.


(10)                     Transitional Dynamics of Dividend Tax and Capital Gains Tax Cuts with Jianjun Miao. Review of Economic Dynamics, 14(2):368-383, 2011.

            Technical Appendix   Programs (zip)   Programs and Results (zip; 30mb file)

(11)                     Firm Heterogeneity and the Long-Run Effects of Dividend Tax Reform, with Jianjun Miao.  AEJ: Macroeconomics, 2(1):131-168, 2010. Programs (zip).

(12)                     Is there a majority to support a capital tax cut? Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 33(6):1278-1295, 2009.


(13)                     Time Series Predictability in the Disaster Model. Finance Research Letters, 5(4): 191-203, 2008. Computational Appendix. Programs (zip).


(14)                     Disasters and Recoveries. American Economic Review - Papers and Proceedings, 98(2): 68-73, 2008.  Correction


(15)                     Investment Spikes: New Facts and a General Equilibrium Exploration, with Anil K Kashyap. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54:S1:S22, 2007.

             Longer version (NBER wp) and Appendix, Data, Programs

Older working papers

(16)                     The Marginal Worker and the Aggregate Elasticity of Labor Supply (May 2009), with P.-A. Noual. Appendix and old version


(17)                     Labor Leverage, Firms Heterogeneous Sensitivities to the Business Cycle, and the Cross-Section of Returns (October 2007)


(18)                     Estimating Firm-Level Risk (October 2008 version, needs a substantial revision)